How football nerds think this Super League season will end

Who is going to win the league, and who is going to be relegated? Over 80 Swiss football lovers have made yet a season prediction in our new guessing game. The results contain a few surprises.

With the chance to win 200 CHF, a lot of Swiss football fans have already played our guessing game. The goal is simple: To outguess our prediction model and make a better season prediction by guessing the overall points scored at the end of the season.

Wait, you haven’t made your prediction yet? Then it’s time >>>

The results so far give an interesting glimpse in the differences between our model and the crowd intellingence of the main target group of massive football nerds.

Here are the average predictions of the players so far:

If the table is not displayed properly, click here.

As you can see, BSC Young Boys is still predicted to win the league comfortably, but not with the clear margin our model predicts.

The players have FC Basel as a lock for the second spot, with a huge margin to YB, but also to the rest below. Basel is the club with the biggest difference between the players and our prediction model. A lot of the players think last season was just a fluke, and FCB will do better this year.

Relegation battle between GC and Sion

3rd and 4th place are predicted to go to Servette FC and FC Luzern, who also got more credit than from our model. The midfield is thight - between Servette and the last team GC the difference is only 10 points.

Speaking of GC: The players think that the relegation battle will go down between the Grasshoppers Club Zürich and FC Sion, and it will be a nailbiter. There is also some scepticism involving FC Lugano. The following chart shows the difference between the prediction model and the players guesses:

If the table is not displayed properly, click here.

It's interesting to analyse the uncertainty of the guesses for every team. For this we can look at a so called boxplot. The larger the filled area, the bigger the uncertainty of the players. The black line in the middle is the average (median), the points below and above are the outlier guesses:

As cou can see, the hardest teams to predict seem to be FC Luzern and FC Sion (standard deviation of 8.7 and 7.5). The lowest variation is with the guesses for Servette. Most players seem pretty sure they will score around 50 points.

It will be interesting to see who prevails in the end, our prediction model or the crowd intelligence of football nerds. If you want to be part of that battle, too, you can play the game here. It's free and you can win 200 CHF.

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