Predictions about the outcome of the UEFA EURO 2024 in Germany. This site is frequently updated during the EURO tournament.
Who is going to win the Euro 2024 in Germany?
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Tournament Odds
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Group Stage Odds
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Odds of upcoming matches
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About the Euro Prediction Model
The predictions are made with a random forest approach based on the following indicators:
- FIFA World Ranking (source: https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men)
- World Football Elo rating (source: https://www.eloratings.net/)
- Average points scored in the last five matches (Euro or Euro Qualifiers)
The model was developed and tested based on over 3'500 matches since 2000. The predictions reach an accuracy of approximately 0.62. This means the model can determine the outcome of a football match (win/draw/loss) correctly in 62 percent of the cases. For the variable selection, a General Additive Model was used (GAM).
To predict the final probabilites, 10'000 simulations were performed. The average outcome of all simulations results in the final probabilities for each team.
Follow @swissfootdata on Twitter for frequent updates about the Euro 2024 Predictions
I strongly recommend to give the account @swissfootdata a follow on Twitter, since I'll let you know about the most recent updates of the prediction model via Twitter.
The prediction model will be updated after all matches in a given Euro day are finished. You can find the Euro 2024 schedule here.
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