Interactive UEFA EURO 2024 Qualifying Draw Simulator

Simon Wolanin

Create a UEFA EURO 2024 qualifying draw for your nation and see the predicted outcome based on World Football Elo, FIFA World Ranking and Market Value.

If the Draw Simulator is not displayed properly, click here.

About the Draw Simulator

This Draw Simulator simulates draws based on the UEFA rules. There are 6 Pots for the draw of the EURO 2024 qualifiers. Germany as the host is automatically qualified.

The following scenarios are not allowed to occur:

  • Prohibited clashes: For political reasons, matches between following pairs of teams are considered prohibited clashes, unable to be drawn into the same group: Armenia / Azerbaijan, Belarus / Ukraine, Gibraltar / Spain, Kosovo / Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo / Serbia.
  • Winter venues: A maximum of two teams whose venues were identified as having high or medium risk of severe winter conditions can be placed in each group: Belarus, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway.
    • The two “hard winter venues” (Faroe Islands and Iceland) generally cannot host games in March or November; the others shall play as few home matches as possible in March and November.
  • Excessive travel: A maximum of one pair of teams identified with excessive travel distance in relation to other countries can be placed in each group:
    • Azerbaijan: with Gibraltar, Iceland, Portugal.
    • Iceland: with Cyprus, Georgia, Israel. (Armenia was also identified with Iceland for excessive travel distance, but the teams were in the same pot for the draw.)
    • Kazakhstan: with Andorra, England, France, Gibraltar, Iceland, Malta, Northern Ireland, Portugal, Republic of Ireland, Scotland, Spain, Wales. (Faroe Islands was also identified with Kazakhstan for excessive travel distance, but the teams were in the same pot for the draw.)

For the prediction, thre factors are evaluated:

  1. The World Football Elo value based on the Elo system to measure relative strength levels
  2. The FIFA World Ranking, based on the team results in the last 4 years
  3. The overall Market Value of the national team based on Transfermarkt

In a given group, the teams will be ranked according to their World Football Elo, FIFA World Ranking and Market Value. The lower the overall average ranking, the better the chances of the team to top the group.

The draw for the UEFA EURO 2024 qualifiers will happen on 9 October at 12:00 CET in Frankfurt.

Leave a Reply