Champions League draw simulator: interactive pots and seeding

The number in the ball is the club's place in the coefficient order of these 36 clubs. Pot 1 spans 133.500 to 102.750, pot 2 95.000 to 68.500, pot 3 62.750 to 43.000 and pot 4 41.000 to 13.500. Bayern München has the highest coefficient of the field.

The league phase replaced the group stage. Instead of four clubs in a small group, all 36 clubs sit in one table and each plays eight matches against eight different opponents. The draw decides who those opponents are. In this UEFA draw simulator each club meets two clubs from each of the four pots, once at home and once away against each pot, which gives four home matches and four away matches.

Two rules limit the draw. A club cannot play a club from its own association, and it cannot play more than two clubs from any one other association. The first rule matters most for the associations with many clubs in the field: in the Champions League league phase the association with the most clubs has 5, and each of those clubs can meet none of the others.

The simulator searches for a draw by building, pot by pot, a one-to-one match between the clubs of one pot and the clubs of another, and by checking the two rules at every step. If it reaches a position where no valid match exists it starts again. It does not simply shuffle the clubs and hope: a plain shuffle would break one of the rules in most attempts.

Why schedules differ in strength

Every club meets two clubs from each pot, so the average strength of the eight opponents is similar from club to club. It is not equal, because the pots are wide and the draw decides which two clubs of each pot a club gets. Strength here means the club coefficient, the number in the pot table above. In the sample draw on this page the hardest schedule belongs to Real Betis, with an average opponent coefficient of 75.219, and the easiest to Fenerbahçe, with 66.031. The average coefficient of all 36 clubs is 70.190, but each club is best compared with the average of the others, because it never plays itself.

The draw decides which two clubs from each pot a club meets, so the strength of a schedule is partly luck. To measure how much, the simulator was run 600 times and the average opponent coefficient of every club was recorded for every draw. The table shows, for each club, the typical value and the range between the easiest and the hardest tenth of the draws.

The club whose schedule varies most from draw to draw is Paris, from 65.844 at the easy end to 75.031 at the hard end, a range of 9.188. The club with the narrowest range is Liverpool, 66.625 to 73.762, a range of 7.137. Bayern München, the club with the highest coefficient, drew a schedule harder than the average of the other 35 clubs in 201 of 300 test draws, which is 67%. That is not a coincidence of the sample. Averaged over the 600 draws, the schedule of a club in each pot sits this far from the average of the other clubs: pot 1: +1.399, pot 2: +0.302, pot 3: -0.421, pot 4: -1.281. Every club meets exactly two opponents from each pot, so pot 1, the strongest pot, counts for a quarter of every schedule while it is only about a quarter of the other clubs. The draw is balanced between pots, and for that reason it is slightly tougher for the clubs in the upper pots and slightly easier for the clubs in the lower ones.

The average club coefficient in each pot is pot 1: 119.167, pot 2: 80.750, pot 3: 55.472, pot 4: 25.372. The step from one pot to the next is 38.417, 25.278, 30.100. Because every club draws two opponents from each pot, the biggest single swing in a schedule comes from which two clubs it gets from pot 1 compared with pot 4: the difference between the best and the worst possible pair from pot 1 is 30.750 on the coefficient scale, and from pot 4 it is 27.500.

The rule against meeting a club from the same association takes some pairings off the table. England has 5 clubs (Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool, Aston Villa, Man Utd); Spain has 5 clubs (Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atleti, Real Betis, Villarreal); Germany has 4 clubs (Bayern München, B. Dortmund, Leipzig, Stuttgart); Italy has 4 clubs (Inter, Roma, Napoli, Como); France has 3 clubs (Paris, Lille, Lens); Portugal has 2 clubs (Sporting CP, Porto); Netherlands has 2 clubs (PSV, Feyenoord); Türkiye has 2 clubs (Fenerbahçe, Galatasaray); Norway has 2 clubs (Bodø/Glimt, Viking). Together that removes 39 of the 630 possible pairings, 6.2% of them, before any random choice is made.

The figure in brackets is how far the average opponent coefficient is above (+) or below (−) the average of the other 35 clubs.

Real Betis (pot 2, Spain). Home to Arsenal, Aston Villa, Leipzig, LASK. Away at Paris, Roma, Feyenoord, Slavia Praha. Average opponent 75.219 (+5.2).

Napoli (pot 3, Italy). Home to Barcelona, Atleti, Shakhtar, AEK Athens. Away at B. Dortmund, Aston Villa, Lille, Stuttgart. Average opponent 73.719 (+3.3).

Shakhtar (pot 3, Ukraine). Home to Bayern München, Porto, Galatasaray, Stuttgart. Away at Paris, Sporting CP, Napoli, Lens. Average opponent 73.594 (+3.1).

Roma (pot 2, Italy). Home to Real Madrid, Real Betis, Galatasaray, Lens. Away at Arsenal, Sporting CP, Fenerbahçe, S. Bratislava. Average opponent 72.969 (+3.2).

Man Utd (pot 2, England). Home to B. Dortmund, Atleti, Fenerbahçe, S. Bratislava. Away at Real Madrid, PSV, Bodø/Glimt, AEK Athens. Average opponent 72.938 (+2.7).

Viking (pot 4, Norway). Home to Paris, Sporting CP, Feyenoord, Stuttgart. Away at Inter, Aston Villa, Leipzig, LASK. Average opponent 72.813 (+1.0).

Man City (pot 1, England). Home to Inter, Sporting CP, Lille, Stuttgart. Away at Bayern München, Atleti, Villarreal, Sabah. Average opponent 72.688 (+3.6).

Bayern München (pot 1, Germany). Home to Man City, Atleti, Villarreal, Lens. Away at Inter, Aston Villa, Shakhtar, S. Bratislava. Average opponent 72.250 (+3.9).

LASK (pot 4, Austria). Home to Liverpool, Atleti, Lille, Viking. Away at Paris, Real Betis, Bodø/Glimt, Slavia Praha. Average opponent 72.188 (+0.4).

Lille (pot 3, France). Home to Real Madrid, Aston Villa, Napoli, Slavia Praha. Away at Man City, Club Brugge, Villarreal, LASK. Average opponent 72.031 (+1.5).

Real Madrid (pot 1, Spain). Home to Arsenal, Man Utd, Galatasaray, Slavia Praha. Away at B. Dortmund, Roma, Lille, Stuttgart. Average opponent 71.719 (+3.2).

Galatasaray (pot 3, Türkiye). Home to Arsenal, PSV, Villarreal, Sabah. Away at Real Madrid, Roma, Shakhtar, Slavia Praha. Average opponent 71.469 (+0.7).

Como (pot 4, Italy). Home to Barcelona, Club Brugge, Leipzig, Lens. Away at Arsenal, Porto, Feyenoord, Stuttgart. Average opponent 70.906 (−0.8).

Sabah (pot 4, Azerbaijan). Home to Man City, Aston Villa, Fenerbahçe, Slavia Praha. Away at B. Dortmund, PSV, Galatasaray, S. Bratislava. Average opponent 70.844 (−1.0).

Inter (pot 1, Italy). Home to Bayern München, Porto, Feyenoord, Viking. Away at Man City, Sporting CP, Leipzig, Slavia Praha. Average opponent 70.531 (+1.7).

Arsenal (pot 1, England). Home to Paris, Roma, Leipzig, Como. Away at Real Madrid, Real Betis, Galatasaray, AEK Athens. Average opponent 70.512 (+2.1).

B. Dortmund (pot 1, Germany). Home to Real Madrid, Aston Villa, Napoli, Sabah. Away at Barcelona, Man Utd, Fenerbahçe, Lens. Average opponent 70.188 (+0.9).

Liverpool (pot 1, England). Home to Barcelona, Club Brugge, Bodø/Glimt, S. Bratislava. Away at Paris, Porto, Feyenoord, LASK. Average opponent 70.156 (+1.1).

Villarreal (pot 3, Spain). Home to Man City, Sporting CP, Lille, Lens. Away at Bayern München, Porto, Galatasaray, AEK Athens. Average opponent 70.125 (−0.8).

S. Bratislava (pot 4, Slovakia). Home to Bayern München, Roma, Bodø/Glimt, Sabah. Away at Liverpool, Man Utd, Fenerbahçe, AEK Athens. Average opponent 70.000 (−1.2).

PSV (pot 2, Netherlands). Home to Paris, Man Utd, Bodø/Glimt, Sabah. Away at Barcelona, Atleti, Galatasaray, Stuttgart. Average opponent 69.938 (−0.3).

Stuttgart (pot 4, Germany). Home to Real Madrid, PSV, Napoli, Como. Away at Man City, Atleti, Shakhtar, Viking. Average opponent 69.637 (−1.5).

Atleti (pot 2, Spain). Home to Man City, PSV, Feyenoord, Stuttgart. Away at Bayern München, Man Utd, Napoli, LASK. Average opponent 69.281 (−0.2).

AEK Athens (pot 4, Greece). Home to Arsenal, Man Utd, Villarreal, S. Bratislava. Away at Barcelona, Club Brugge, Napoli, Lens. Average opponent 69.063 (−2.3).

Leipzig (pot 3, Germany). Home to Inter, Club Brugge, Feyenoord, Viking. Away at Arsenal, Real Betis, Bodø/Glimt, Como. Average opponent 68.950 (−1.8).

Sporting CP (pot 2, Portugal). Home to Inter, Roma, Shakhtar, Slavia Praha. Away at Man City, Club Brugge, Villarreal, Viking. Average opponent 68.781 (−1.1).

Lens (pot 4, France). Home to B. Dortmund, Porto, Shakhtar, AEK Athens. Away at Bayern München, Roma, Villarreal, Como. Average opponent 68.731 (−2.9).

Feyenoord (pot 3, Netherlands). Home to Liverpool, Real Betis, Fenerbahçe, Como. Away at Inter, Atleti, Leipzig, Viking. Average opponent 68.106 (−2.5).

Porto (pot 2, Portugal). Home to Liverpool, Club Brugge, Villarreal, Como. Away at Inter, Aston Villa, Shakhtar, Lens. Average opponent 68.043 (−1.9).

Bodø/Glimt (pot 3, Norway). Home to Paris, Man Utd, Leipzig, LASK. Away at Liverpool, PSV, Fenerbahçe, S. Bratislava. Average opponent 67.688 (−2.9).

Slavia Praha (pot 4, Czechia). Home to Inter, Real Betis, Galatasaray, LASK. Away at Real Madrid, Sporting CP, Lille, Sabah. Average opponent 67.531 (−3.5).

Aston Villa (pot 2, England). Home to Bayern München, Porto, Napoli, Viking. Away at B. Dortmund, Real Betis, Lille, Sabah. Average opponent 67.344 (−2.1).

Club Brugge (pot 2, Belgium). Home to Barcelona, Sporting CP, Lille, AEK Athens. Away at Liverpool, Porto, Leipzig, Como. Average opponent 67.200 (−2.7).

Barcelona (pot 1, Spain). Home to B. Dortmund, PSV, Fenerbahçe, AEK Athens. Away at Liverpool, Club Brugge, Napoli, Como. Average opponent 66.981 (−2.1).

Paris (pot 1, France). Home to Liverpool, Real Betis, Shakhtar, LASK. Away at Arsenal, PSV, Bodø/Glimt, Viking. Average opponent 66.688 (−1.9).

Fenerbahçe (pot 3, Türkiye). Home to B. Dortmund, Roma, Bodø/Glimt, S. Bratislava. Away at Barcelona, Man Utd, Feyenoord, Sabah. Average opponent 66.031 (−4.4).

The simulator shows who plays whom and where. It does not allocate the matches to matchdays, and it does not apply security or broadcast restrictions that an official draw has to respect. The pots are built from club coefficients alone and are not the pots of the official draw. The tool is therefore a way to explore how a valid draw can fall and how large the differences between schedules can be, not a forecast of an official result.

The Conference League is not part of the simulator. Its league phase has six matches per club and its own pot structure, so a draw for it needs different rules. The Champions League and the Europa League share the same eight-match format and both are available above.

Results of the real league phase are on the Champions League standings and the Europa League standings pages, and the coefficients behind the pots are on the club ranking.

The Champions League simulator on this page follows the league phase format: 36 clubs in four pots, each club playing eight opponents. The interactive part lets a visitor run the draw again and see where the schedule changes.

Seeding decides which pot a club enters, and the seeding used here is the club coefficient order shown on the ranking pages. As a UEFA draw simulator it applies the draw conditions described above, and this interactive Champions League simulator shows one possible draw, not the one UEFA will make.