World Cup 2022 Predictions

Predictions about the outcome of the FIFA World Cup 2022 in Qatar. This site is frequently updated during the World Cup.

Likelihood to win the World Cup for each team

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Likelihood of tournament outcome for each team

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Odds of upcoming matches

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About the World Cup Prediction Model

The predictions are made with a random forest approach based on the following indicators:

• FIFA World Ranking (source: https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men)
• World Football Elo rating (source: https://www.eloratings.net/)
• Average points scored in the last five matches (World Cup or World Cup Qualifiers)

The model was developed and tested based on over 3'500 World Cup matches (Qualifying Stage and World Cup) since 2000. The predictions reach an accuracy of approximately 0.62. This means the model can determine the outcome of a football match (win/draw/loss) correctly in 62 percent of the cases. For the variable selection, a General Additive Model was used (GAM).

To predict the final probabilites, 1'000 simulations were performed. The average outcome of all simulations results in the final probabilities for each team.

Follow @swissfootdata on Twitter for frequent updates about the World Cup 2022 Predictions

I strongly recommend to give the account @swissfootdata a follow on Twitter, since I'll let you know about the most recent updates of the prediction model via Twitter.

The prediction model will be updated after all matches in a given World Cup day are finished. You can find the World Cup schedule here.

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