Sorry, FCSG and Basel, but YB is going to win the league. Here is why.

With 9 rounds left to play, the battle for the title in Super League is electrifying. FCSG, YB and Basel are all hoping to hold the trophy at the end of the season. Our model shows that YB is most likely going to win it.

Despite FCSG currently on top of the league, our model predicts YB to win their third consecutive title this season. The prediction of the final standings has YB finish with 71 points, 5 points ahead of FC St. Gallen and 6 points ahead of FC Basel.

Let’s take a closer look why our model is so confident that the celebration will once again happen in Berne. The following charts show every prediction of the remaining matches from the three contenders:

Our model predicts the easiest tasks ahead of FC St. Gallen will be Sion and Xamax at home. They are also a decent favourite against Lucerne, but then things get complicated. The model does not trust FCSG’s ability to win away: Servette, Lugano, FCZ and Thun are all more likely to win their home matches against Peter Zeidlers team.

FCSG has also the worst odds against their main opponents for the title. Despite playing at home against FC Basel, the model predicts that the Bebbi will win with 51% certainty. Against YB away, the odds look way more grim. The model gives FCSG only a 11% chance to win that crucial match.

If you look at the odds of YB, one thing is staggering: The model has huge confidence with the current title holder – if they play at home. With every of their remaining 5 matches in Berne, YB is more than 80% likely to win.

Things don’t look so bright with the away games, though. YB is still the favourite against Xamax, Sion and Zurich, but the model has way less confidence that the team von Gerardo Seoane will win. Things look real bad against FC Basel, where the model gives YB only a 22% chance (!) to win.

Still, the impressive home advantage will most likely carry YB to the title.

The astonishing about the odds of FC Basel is that they are the favourite in every remaining match! So despite the subpar performances lately, our model still trusts Basel well enough to trouble every opponent. The home advantage is not as staggering as with YB, but still quite obvious.

Surprisingly, the model predicts the away matches against Servette and Thun to be the biggest challenge for the team of Marcel Koller. All in all, the odds do not look bad for Basel, but the current handicap is probably too big to catch YB.

You can find out more about our model here, which is based on over 1500 Super League matches and calculated with a random forest approach.

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