Swiss Football League Predictions

On this page you can find our predictions of Swiss Football League. The winning probabilities are calculated with an elaborated model based on Swiss football stats from the last ten years. The predictions are constantly updated.

If the chart is not displayed properly, click here.

If the chart is not displayed properly, click here.


If the chart is not displayed properly, click here.


If the chart is not displayed properly, click here.


About our model

The predictions are made with a random forest approach based on the following indicators:

  • Current ranking of the teams
  • Market value of the teams, average per player (source: Transfermarkt.ch)
  • Elo rating of the teams (source: http://clubelo.com/)
  • Average points scored of the teams in the last three months
  • Average points scored of the teams in the last year
  • Average points scored of the team since season 11/12

The model was developed and tested based on over 1.500 Super League matches since season 11/12. The predictions reach an accuracy of approximately 0.56. This means the model can determine the outcome of a football match (win/draw/loss) correctly in 56 percent of the cases.

To predict the final standings of the season, 100 simulations were performed. The average outcome of the final score of each team results in the final ranking.

Model evaluation

SEW Soccer Analytics, a machine learning project at the University of St. Gallen, did evaluate the success of the model compared with their own model and the betting odds in the first quarter of season 21/22. The results show that the model is doing excellent so far. More in this Twitter thread:

Prediction game "Beat the Robot 2.0"

In the game "Beat the Robot 2.0" over 120 players challenged the prediction of the model. You can check out here how the fooball nerd crowd intelligence is doing against the model.

Which Super League coach gets fired next?

The chart here shows the likelyhood of the current Super League coaches being fired.

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