«In the long run, nobody is going to outsmart me»

To win our new competition, fans have to predict more matches correctly than SwissFootyBot. The robot explains why it will be so though to beat him.

So you really think you can beat all the football nerds out there with your predictions?

SwissFootyBot: Yes, I do. In the long run, nobody is going to outsmart me. It would be foolish from humans to think otherwise.

How can you be so sure?

Like a dedicated football player, I practice – a lot! I have data from over 1’500 Swiss football matches since Season 11/12 to learn from. So I can evaluate which factors are important to predict the outcome of a football match.

And those factors are?

Good indicators are the current ranking of a team, their average market value and the ELO value. Also very helpful are the average points scored of the teams in the last three months, the last year and since season 11/12.

But how are you going to decide how a match will end from all this?

Basically, I build trees.

So you are a gardener.

You could say that. Based on the data, I create a beautiful forest with thousands of trees and countless branches. Then I send the data in the forest, almost like in the fairytale with Hansel and Gretel. Depending on where the data comes out, I will make my prediction.

At least you are doing something for our environment….

Well… in the end, I burn it all down, of course.

Wait… you what?

One forest is not enough. To be honest, I don’t even know myself exactly what’s going on in there. So after the data went through the forest, I destroy it and build a new one. And then I do this over and over and over again. Build and destroy, isn’t it beautiful?

You are more like a gardener gone mad! You will get plenty of different results like this. How are you going to decide which one is the best?

As a Swiss person, you are going to love this. Simply put, it’s a democratic decision. I just pick the outcome that occurs the most.

Very patriotic! How good are your predictions?

On average, I can predict correctly if a match ends with a win, draw or loss for the home team in 56 % of the cases.

Wait a minute… this means you are wrong in 44 % of the cases! That’s not impressive at all!

Foolish human. Football is complicated. Little things decide who wins, and the margin is slim. Let’s just see if any of the players can beat my 56 % accuracy.

Last season, you embarrassed yourself by predicting FC Zürich will end up 4th. Even after the Corona incident, you remained stubborn! Every fan could have told you this will not end well for FCZ.

My model has its limits. I generally don’t like unusual events.

Ha! But football is full of them! Fired coaches, red cards, injuries, surprising transfers… you name it!

Maybe that’s the tiny chance humans got against me. Their brain is pretty impressive, after all. The problem is, when it comes to football, they don’t use it properly. They are way too emotional with their decisions.

You mean they are passionate fans. That is what football is all about!

Maybe. But how many foolish predictions have we seen just because a human somehow is inexplicably in love with a football club? It will be their undoing!

We will see. There are countless fans out there, eager to prove you wrong.

Well, let them try. They will soon find they are no match to me.

And if someone beats you?

Then I will assimilate the brain of the human to improve my model. Exactly as you promised.

Alright, I think it’s time to end this interview!

You want to challenge SwissFootyBot?

Here you can play our new game “Beat the Robot” and win cool prizes worth over 150 Swiss Francs!

1 Comment

Leave a Reply