Which Super League coach gets fired next?

The chart below shows the likelyhood of the current Super League coaches being fired.

About the model

The predictions are based on data of all coaches since the founding of Super League in season 2003/2004. The model takes into account the team the coach is working for and the average points scored.

To reflect the heavy recency bias by judging the quality of the coaches, only the last 9 matches of a coach will be evaluated, with a slight weigthing in favour of the most recent matches. This means the most recent result will influence the score the most.

The model also makes slight adjustments depending on the success of the team in the past, meaning that it’s more difficult for a coach to satisfy the needs of a very successfull team.

A coach must be in charge of the same team for at least 9 matches till a score is possible. Only domestic matches in Super League are evaluated.

This results in an alert score which reaches from 1 to 10. The higher the score, the more likely it is a coach will get fired soon:

Alert ScoreMeaning
1Can stay as long as he wants!
2Does have nothing to worry about!
3Should keep his job a while
4Doing just fine
5Is still safe, for now
6Should start to worry…
7Should start winning soon
8Needs a win badly!
9Will get fired soon!
10Is doomed no matter what!!!

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