Prediction gameNo stakes
Beat the robot: predict the next matchday against a model
Pick a result for every match, lock your picks, and see who got more right once the games are played.
Fixtures updated Thu, 22 Oct 2026
Make your picks
Kick-off times are UK time. No stakes, no prizes, no account: your picks stay in this browser.
What the robot picks
| Match | Home | Draw | Away | Robot | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar v Sporting CP | 44% | 25% | 32% | Home | Home 44% · Draw 25% · Away 32% |
| Galatasaray v Stuttgart | 53% | 24% | 23% | Home | Home 53% · Draw 24% · Away 23% |
| Barcelona v Aston Villa | 52% | 24% | 24% | Home | Home 52% · Draw 24% · Away 24% |
| Atleti v Bayern München | 43% | 25% | 33% | Home | Home 43% · Draw 25% · Away 33% |
| Man Utd v Roma | 45% | 25% | 31% | Home | Home 45% · Draw 25% · Away 31% |
| Feyenoord v Inter | 34% | 25% | 41% | Away | Home 34% · Draw 25% · Away 41% |
| Bodø/Glimt v Lille | 49% | 25% | 27% | Home | Home 49% · Draw 25% · Away 27% |
| Villarreal v Paris | 28% | 25% | 47% | Away | Home 28% · Draw 25% · Away 47% |
| LASK v S. Bratislava | 31% | 25% | 44% | Away | Home 31% · Draw 25% · Away 44% |
| Fenerbahçe v Liverpool | 37% | 25% | 38% | Away | Home 37% · Draw 25% · Away 38% |
| AEK Athens v Real Madrid | 22% | 24% | 54% | Away | Home 22% · Draw 24% · Away 54% |
| B. Dortmund v Real Betis | 55% | 24% | 21% | Home | Home 55% · Draw 24% · Away 21% |
| Porto v Napoli | 53% | 24% | 23% | Home | Home 53% · Draw 24% · Away 23% |
| PSV v Club Brugge | 47% | 25% | 28% | Home | Home 47% · Draw 25% · Away 28% |
| Leipzig v Man City | 34% | 25% | 41% | Away | Home 34% · Draw 25% · Away 41% |
| Slavia Praha v Arsenal | 27% | 25% | 49% | Away | Home 27% · Draw 25% · Away 49% |
| Lens v Como | 51% | 24% | 24% | Home | Home 51% · Draw 24% · Away 24% |
| Viking v Sabah | 45% | 25% | 30% | Home | Home 45% · Draw 25% · Away 30% |
Across all three competitions the robot has 54 matches to call and picks 36 home wins, 0 draws and 18 away wins. It picks no draws, because a draw is rarely the single most likely result of a match.
Over this Champions League matchday the model expects about 7.5 home wins out of 18. Its most confident call across the three competitions is Atalanta v Kairat Almaty (Home, 79%), and its closest call is Fenerbahçe v Liverpool, where the favourite has only 38%.
The robot's picks in the other competitions
Europa League, Matchday 4
| Match | Home | Draw | Away | Robot | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rennes v Olympiacos | 32% | 25% | 43% | Away | Home 32% · Draw 25% · Away 43% |
| Milan v Ferencváros | 51% | 24% | 24% | Home | Home 51% · Draw 24% · Away 24% |
| Real Sociedad v Lyon | 50% | 25% | 26% | Home | Home 50% · Draw 25% · Away 26% |
| Sparta Praha v Bournemouth | 59% | 23% | 18% | Home | Home 59% · Draw 23% · Away 18% |
| Anderlecht v Salzburg | 49% | 25% | 27% | Home | Home 49% · Draw 25% · Away 27% |
| Crystal Palace v Hoffenheim | 56% | 24% | 20% | Home | Home 56% · Draw 24% · Away 20% |
| N.E.C. v Omonia | 37% | 25% | 38% | Away | Home 37% · Draw 25% · Away 38% |
| Lillestrøm v Viktoria Plzeň | 17% | 23% | 59% | Away | Home 17% · Draw 23% · Away 59% |
| Levski Sofia v Jagiellonia | 33% | 25% | 43% | Away | Home 33% · Draw 25% · Away 43% |
| Leverkusen v Marseille | 66% | 22% | 12% | Home | Home 66% · Draw 22% · Away 12% |
| Benfica v Lech Poznań | 67% | 22% | 11% | Home | Home 67% · Draw 22% · Away 11% |
| AZ Alkmaar v Juventus | 48% | 25% | 28% | Home | Home 48% · Draw 25% · Away 28% |
| Celtic v Beşiktaş | 64% | 23% | 14% | Home | Home 64% · Draw 23% · Away 14% |
| Sturm Graz v Celje | 52% | 24% | 24% | Home | Home 52% · Draw 24% · Away 24% |
| Sunderland v GNK Dinamo | 37% | 25% | 39% | Away | Home 37% · Draw 25% · Away 39% |
| Celta v Union SG | 28% | 25% | 47% | Away | Home 28% · Draw 25% · Away 47% |
| Torreense v Ararat-Armenia | 60% | 23% | 17% | Home | Home 60% · Draw 23% · Away 17% |
| H. Beer-Sheva v OFI Crete | 54% | 24% | 22% | Home | Home 54% · Draw 24% · Away 22% |
Conference League, Matchday 3
| Match | Home | Draw | Away | Robot | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta v Kairat Almaty | 79% | 18% | 3% | Home | Home 79% · Draw 18% · Away 3% |
| Midtjylland v Ajax | 51% | 24% | 25% | Home | Home 51% · Draw 24% · Away 25% |
| Crvena Zvezda v Inter Escaldes | 75% | 20% | 5% | Home | Home 75% · Draw 20% · Away 5% |
| KuPS Kuopio v Gent | 31% | 25% | 44% | Away | Home 31% · Draw 25% · Away 44% |
| L. Red Imps v Hajduk Split | 47% | 25% | 29% | Home | Home 47% · Draw 25% · Away 29% |
| Trabzonspor v Freiburg | 21% | 24% | 56% | Away | Home 21% · Draw 24% · Away 56% |
| Aarhus v Braga | 17% | 23% | 60% | Away | Home 17% · Draw 23% · Away 60% |
| Thun v Hearts | 37% | 25% | 39% | Away | Home 37% · Draw 25% · Away 39% |
| Mjällby v Borac | 32% | 25% | 43% | Away | Home 32% · Draw 25% · Away 43% |
| Monaco v Nordsjælland | 75% | 20% | 6% | Home | Home 75% · Draw 20% · Away 6% |
| Copenhagen v Iberia Tbilisi | 79% | 18% | 3% | Home | Home 79% · Draw 18% · Away 3% |
| Panathinaikos v CSKA Sofia | 77% | 19% | 4% | Home | Home 77% · Draw 19% · Away 4% |
| Lugano v Kauno Žalgiris | 75% | 20% | 5% | Home | Home 75% · Draw 20% · Away 5% |
| Getafe v Brighton | 45% | 25% | 30% | Home | Home 45% · Draw 25% · Away 30% |
| Twente v Pafos | 42% | 25% | 33% | Home | Home 42% · Draw 25% · Away 33% |
| Sint-Truidense v Brann | 44% | 25% | 31% | Home | Home 44% · Draw 25% · Away 31% |
| Univ. Craiova v Egnatia | 60% | 23% | 17% | Home | Home 60% · Draw 23% · Away 17% |
| Riga v Jablonec | 51% | 24% | 25% | Home | Home 51% · Draw 24% · Away 25% |
Does the club with the higher coefficient win?
Across the three 2026/27 competitions, qualifying included, 571 completed matches had two clubs with different coefficients. The club with the higher coefficient won 302 of them (53%), 127 were drawn (22%) and the club with the lower coefficient won 142 (25%). The order of the coefficients therefore carries real information, which is why a model built on it can beat a guess. The 25% of results that go the other way are why it still misses.
Champions League. 144 matches: higher coefficient won 83 (58%), draws 26, lower coefficient won 35 (24%).
Europa League. 134 matches: higher coefficient won 76 (57%), draws 26, lower coefficient won 32 (24%).
Conference League. 293 matches: higher coefficient won 143 (49%), draws 75, lower coefficient won 75 (26%).
The biggest upsets by coefficient gap so far are St. Gallen 2–1 Benfica (Europa League, gap 69.5); Sporting CP 2–3 LASK (Champions League, gap 64.0); N.E.C. 2–1 Olympiacos (Champions League, gap 49.2); Como 4–1 Man Utd (Champions League, gap 48.4); Bournemouth 3–0 Milan (Europa League, gap 39.7).
How the robot works and how good it is
The robot is a rating model. Each club gets a strength from its club coefficient, the difference between the two strengths is adjusted for home advantage, and that gap is turned into the probability of a home win, a draw and an away win. The robot picks whichever of the three is highest.
The settings were chosen on the first 400 completed matches of this season's European matches in date order and tested on the next 172. On those 172 the model's score, the logarithmic loss, was 0.9334 against 1.0294 for a baseline that always uses the overall shares of home wins, draws and away wins (48% / 25% / 27%). That is 9.3% better, and the outcome with the highest probability happened 56% of the time. The settings used for the fixtures above were then refitted on all 572 completed matches.
The limits are plain. The strength of a club comes from its coefficient, so the model does not know injuries, form or rotation, and in the early part of a season a coefficient from past years is all it has. A single match is also very uncertain: a favourite with a 65% chance still fails to win in about one match in three.
Questions about Beat the robot
What is Beat the robot?
A prediction game with no stakes. You choose home win, draw or away win for the next matchday of a European competition, and the robot, a rating model, makes its own choices. When the results are in, the game compares how many each of you got right.
Is any money involved?
No. There are no stakes, no prizes and no accounts. Your picks stay in your own browser.
How does the robot choose?
For each match the model gives a probability for a home win, a draw and an away win, and the robot picks the outcome with the highest probability.
How good is the robot?
On 172 matches that were kept aside while it was being set up, it picked the right outcome 56% of the time, and its probabilities scored 9.3% better than a baseline that only uses the overall share of home wins, draws and away wins. It is a useful reference, not an oracle.
How are points counted?
One point for each correct outcome, for you and for the robot. A match counts when its result is in the data.
Where are my picks stored?
In your browser, on your device. Nothing is sent anywhere, and clearing your browser data removes them.
Can I change a pick after locking it?
Not after kick-off. Before kick-off you can change a pick and lock it again.
Which competition does the game use?
You choose between the Champions League, the Europa League and the Conference League. Each shows the next matchday of its league phase.
Why does the robot pick a draw so rarely?
A draw is rarely the single most likely outcome of a match, even though it happens in about one match in four. The model gives a draw a probability of around 25%, which is almost always lower than the probability of the favourite winning.
Is this betting advice?
No. The game is for fun, and gambling can lead to losses. The probabilities describe a model, not a recommendation.