Spoiler alert! This team is going to win Super League season 22/23

A combination of prediction models, betting odds and the guesses of over 130 football nerds delivers insights about the most likely outcome of Super League season 22/23.

The season of Swiss Super League is about to start, and everybody is wondering: who is going to win it? Last season, FC Zürich pulled off a huge upset and was crowned champion, much to everybodys surprise.

Can FCZ pull off another miracle? Is it BSC Young Boys who will strike back? Do we see the resurrection of FC Basel? Or will the title go to another unexpected club out of nowhere?

YB favourite to win the league

We gathered different prediction methods to made the ultimate season prediction:

  1. Our own prediction model, based on over 2’000 Super League matches and 1’000 simulations of the season
  2. The guesses of over 130 football fans who already played our prediction game Beat The Robot 3.0.
  3. The betting odds from the official Swiss sports betting provider Sporttip

Below you can see the probabilites from each method for a team to win Super League 22/23:

Overall, there is a 54 % chance that BSC Young Boys wins the championship! While our model is quite certain that the champion of 2018 till 2021 will regain its throne, the football nerd crowd intelligence is a bit more doubtful, forseeing a tight battle with FC Basel. The betting odds from Sporttipp rather surprisingly actually narrowly favours FC Basel over YB.

There is a lot of doubt that FC Zürich can defend their title. Our model and the football nerds only give FCZ an outside chance, only the betting odds are a little bit gentler towards FCZ, giving them a 17.6 % chance to win it all again.

Nobody really believes in any other team. Best of the "rest" is FC St. Gallen, but 1.9 % is still a really low average compared to YB, Basel and FCZ. FC Lugano and Servette FC barely make it over the 1 % mark, the rest is even below.

FC Winterthur to end up last?

There is a lot more uncertainty who is going to end up last. Our model and the football nerds predict that the newly promoted team FC Winterthur is going to have a difficult season, the overall chances to end up last lie at 44.6 %. There are no betting odds to be evaluated here.

There are also a lot of doubts concerning Grasshopper Club Zürich and FC Sion, but not even FC Lugano, FC Luzern, Servette FC and FC St. Gallen are considered completely save.

Due to the reform of Super League in season 23/23, which will include 12 instead of 10 teams, the club that ends up last is not guaranteed to be relegated. There will be a playoff between the 10th of Super League and the 3rd of Challenge League. The past has shown that the Super League team is more likely to survive this "Barrage", so there is a rather good chance no team gets relegated at all.

FC Lugano the biggest wild card

If we compare our prediction model with the guesses of the football nerds, there is a glaring discrepancy with FC Lugano. While our model believes that a rather difficult season lies ahead for the team from Ticino, the players have way more trust in Lugano, predicting them to end up 4th with over 11 points more than guessed by our model.

There is also more trust in FC Basel and sligthly more faith in FC St. Gallen from the players. On the other hand, the football fans are a bit more doubtful about FC Luzern, FC Winterthur, FC Sion, GC and YB.

With Servette and FC Zürich, the prediction model and the football fans more or less agree about the outcome of the upcoming season.

Which team is the hardest to predict?

If we take a look at the distribution of the players' guesses, there are some interesting patterns.

How to read the boxplot: The longer the square, the more variance between the most guesses (1st quantil till 3rd quantil). The dots above or below show the outlier guesses. The line in the middle is the average of the guesses (median).

There is a lot of uncertainty from the players about where FCZ will end up. Also, Lugano and Winti seem to be rather hard to predict.

The most outliers are wisible for the predictions of Servette FC and FC Sion. Which means there are some fans who think this teams will do particularely good or bad.

Make your own season prediction and win big

If you haven't played our season prediction game yet, it's high time. The season is about to start on 16th of July at 6 pm with the match BSC Young Boys against FC Winterthur.

You can check out all about the game here, and here you can make your season prediction. If you outsmart our prediction model and the other players, you can win 200 CHF.

Leave a Reply