On this page you can find our predictions of Swiss Football League. The winning probabilities are calculated with an elaborated model based on Swiss football stats from the last ten years. The predictions are constantly updated.
Make your own prediction!
You can challenge our model by making your own prediction. If you outsmart SwissFootyBot, you can win 200 Swiss Francs. Read more about it here >>>
If the chart is not displayed properly, click here.
If the chart is not displayed properly, click here.
If the chart is not displayed properly, click here.
If the chart is not displayed properly, click here.
If the chart is not displayed properly, click here.
Make your own prediction!
You can challenge our model by making your own prediction. If you outsmart SwissFootyBot, you can win 200 Swiss Francs. Read more about it here >>>
About our model
The predictions are made with a random forest approach based on the following indicators:
- Current ranking of the teams
- Market value of the teams, average per player (source: Transfermarkt.ch)
- Elo rating of the teams (source: http://clubelo.com/)
- Average points scored of the teams in the last three months
- Average points scored of the teams in the last year
- Average points scored of the team in the last three years
The model was developed and tested based on over 2'000 Super League matches since season 11/12. The predictions reach an accuracy of approximately 0.52. This means the model can determine the outcome of a football match (win/draw/loss) correctly in 52 percent of the cases.
To predict the final standings of the season, 10'000 simulations were performed. The average outcome of the final score of each team results in the final ranking.
Model evaluation
SEW Soccer Analytics, a machine learning project at the University of St. Gallen, did evaluate the success of the model compared with their own model and the betting odds in the first quarter of season 21/22. The results show that the model is doing excellent so far. More in this Twitter thread:
Which Super League coach gets fired next?
The chart here shows the likelyhood of the current Super League coaches being fired.
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