Swiss Super LeagueProjection2026/27
Swiss Super League predictions: projected table and top-six chances
A rating model and 20,000 simulated runs of the regular season, with the numbers shown for every club.
Last result 25 October 2026
20,000Simulated seasonsOf the regular season
752Matches in the check2023/2024 to 2026/2027
47.7%Right pickOn matches kept aside
2.8%Better than the baselineLog-loss, same matches
Swiss Super League predictions: the projected table
These Swiss Super League predictions project the regular season to round 33, the point at which the table splits. After 11 rounds, Lugano are projected to finish on about 71.1 points and Young Boys on 63.1. Lugano finish first in 81% of the simulated seasons.
| Exp. | Club | Rating | Now | Proj. pts | Top six | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugano | 1614 | 31 | 71.1 | >99% | Rating 1614 · 31 pts now · 71.1 projected |
| 2 | Young Boys | 1593 | 25 | 63.1 | >99% | Rating 1593 · 25 pts now · 63.1 projected |
| 3 | Sion | 1556 | 22 | 56.6 | 98% | Rating 1556 · 22 pts now · 56.6 projected |
| 4 | St. Gallen | 1541 | 16 | 49.1 | 78% | Rating 1541 · 16 pts now · 49.1 projected |
| 5 | Servette | 1539 | 16 | 48.9 | 80% | Rating 1539 · 16 pts now · 48.9 projected |
| 6 | Basel | 1514 | 14 | 44.5 | 52% | Rating 1514 · 14 pts now · 44.5 projected |
| 7 | Zurich | 1462 | 17 | 42.3 | 37% | Rating 1462 · 17 pts now · 42.3 projected |
| 8 | Luzern | 1497 | 12 | 40.7 | 26% | Rating 1497 · 12 pts now · 40.7 projected |
| 9 | Thun | 1506 | 10 | 39.6 | 20% | Rating 1506 · 10 pts now · 39.6 projected |
| 10 | Vaduz | 1469 | 9 | 35 | 7% | Rating 1469 · 9 pts now · 35 projected |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 1418 | 9 | 30.2 | 1% | Rating 1418 · 9 pts now · 30.2 projected |
| 12 | Lausanne | 1433 | 6 | 28.5 | 1% | Rating 1433 · 6 pts now · 28.5 projected |
Chance of reaching the championship group
Lugano, Young Boys, Sion are close to certain of the top six (90% or more). The places are still open for St. Gallen (78%), Servette (80%), Basel (52%), Zurich (37%), Luzern (26%), Thun (20%). Vaduz, Grasshoppers, Lausanne have ten percent or less.
The sixth and seventh places in the projection are Basel (44.5 points) and Zurich (42.3), a difference of 2.2 points. A gap that small means that the dividing line is decided in the last rounds before the split, not now.
The Swiss Super League games still to play
Each pair of clubs meets three times before the split. After 11 rounds, 132 of those Swiss Super League games are still to be played, which is 22 matches for each club. The home and away order of those matches is not in the data, so each simulation gives every remaining match a random home side.
The projection is the average of 20,000 complete runs. In each run every remaining match is decided by chance with the probabilities the ratings give, the points are added to what each club has, and the final order is recorded. The expected points in the table are the averages of those runs, and the top-six chance is the share of runs in which the club finished sixth or better.
Swiss league prediction, club by club
1st in the projection, Lugano. Rating 1614. 31 points after 11 matches, currently 1st in the table, projected to finish the regular season on 71.1 points with an average place of 1.2. Chance of the top six: >99%. Chance of finishing first after round 33: 81%.
2nd in the projection, Young Boys. Rating 1593. 25 points after 11 matches, currently 2nd in the table, projected to finish the regular season on 63.1 points with an average place of 2.2. Chance of the top six: >99%. Chance of finishing first after round 33: 16%.
3rd in the projection, Sion. Rating 1556. 22 points after 11 matches, currently 3rd in the table, projected to finish the regular season on 56.6 points with an average place of 3.3. Chance of the top six: 98%. Chance of finishing first after round 33: 3%.
4th in the projection, St. Gallen. Rating 1541. 16 points after 11 matches, currently 6th in the table, projected to finish the regular season on 49.1 points with an average place of 5.2. Chance of the top six: 78%. The projection places the club 2 places higher than the table does today, which comes from the matches still to be played.
5th in the projection, Servette. Rating 1539. 16 points after 11 matches, currently 5th in the table, projected to finish the regular season on 48.9 points with an average place of 5.1. Chance of the top six: 80%.
6th in the projection, Basel. Rating 1514. 14 points after 11 matches, currently 7th in the table, projected to finish the regular season on 44.5 points with an average place of 6.5. Chance of the top six: 52%.
7th in the projection, Zurich. Rating 1462. 17 points after 11 matches, currently 4th in the table, projected to finish the regular season on 42.3 points with an average place of 7.2. Chance of the top six: 37%. The projection places the club 3 places lower than the table does today, which comes from the matches still to be played.
8th in the projection, Luzern. Rating 1497. 12 points after 11 matches, currently 8th in the table, projected to finish the regular season on 40.7 points with an average place of 7.8. Chance of the top six: 26%.
9th in the projection, Thun. Rating 1506. 10 points after 11 matches, currently 9th in the table, projected to finish the regular season on 39.6 points with an average place of 8.2. Chance of the top six: 20%.
10th in the projection, Vaduz. Rating 1469. 9 points after 11 matches, currently 10th in the table, projected to finish the regular season on 35 points with an average place of 9.4. Chance of the top six: 7%.
11th in the projection, Grasshoppers. Rating 1418. 9 points after 11 matches, currently 11th in the table, projected to finish the regular season on 30.2 points with an average place of 10.8. Chance of the top six: 1%.
12th in the projection, Lausanne. Rating 1433. 6 points after 11 matches, currently 12th in the table, projected to finish the regular season on 28.5 points with an average place of 11.1. Chance of the top six: 1%.
Where each Swiss Super League club is likely to finish
| Club | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Top six | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugano | 81% | 16% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% | 1st 81% · 2nd 16% · 3rd 3% |
| Young Boys | 16% | 59% | 19% | 5% | 1% | <1% | >99% | 2nd 59% · 3rd 19% · 1st 16% |
| Sion | 3% | 18% | 47% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 98% | 3rd 47% · 4th 19% · 2nd 18% |
| St. Gallen | <1% | 3% | 12% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 78% | 4th 24% · 5th 23% · 6th 17% |
| Servette | <1% | 3% | 12% | 26% | 23% | 16% | 80% | 4th 26% · 5th 23% · 6th 16% |
| Basel | <1% | 1% | 4% | 12% | 17% | 19% | 52% | 6th 19% · 7th 18% · 5th 17% |
| Zurich | <1% | <1% | 2% | 7% | 12% | 16% | 37% | 7th 19% · 8th 18% · 6th 16% |
| Luzern | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 8% | 12% | 26% | 8th 20% · 9th 18% · 7th 17% |
| Thun | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 10% | 20% | 9th 20% · 8th 18% · 10th 16% |
| Vaduz | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 7% | 10th 25% · 9th 19% · 11th 19% |
| Grasshoppers | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 12th 37% · 11th 33% · 10th 17% |
| Lausanne | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 12th 47% · 11th 29% · 10th 14% |
The table shows how concentrated or spread each club's outcomes are. Lugano finish first in 81% of the runs and second in 16%. St. Gallen, projected fourth, have a chance of at least 2% in every place from 2nd to 9th, which is 8 places for a club in the middle of the table.
What the Swiss Super League top six takes
Across the simulated seasons the club in first place finishes on between 66 and 79 points (72 in the middle). The sixth place, which is the last place in the championship group, takes between 42 and 49 points (46 in the middle), and the seventh place between 40 and 46 (43). Those ranges are the practical targets: a club that reaches the upper end of the sixth-place range is very likely to be in the championship group, and a club below the lower end is very likely to miss it.
The medians of the sixth and seventh places are 3 points apart, so the line is drawn by a margin of a few points in most seasons. 22 matches per club still separate today's table from that line.
Rating changes since the Swiss season began
The ratings entering the 2026/27 season, after the summer pull towards the average, and the ratings today give a measure of who has moved. The largest rises are Lugano (1554 to 1614, +60), Young Boys (1548 to 1593, +45), Sion (1536 to 1556, +20). The largest falls are Thun (1543 to 1506, -37), Lausanne (1460 to 1433, -27), Grasshoppers (1435 to 1418, -17).
A rating change of ten points or more in 11 matches is a visible shift, and ratings keep moving as results come in. A club whose rating has moved a lot, up or down, has already changed its projection compared with what the table suggested at the start of the season.
How well the Swiss league prediction probabilities match reality
| Model home-win probability | Matches | Model said | Home side won |
|---|---|---|---|
| below 35% | 233 | 28% | 36% |
| 35% to 45% | 244 | 40% | 40% |
| 45% to 55% | 182 | 50% | 53% |
| 55% to 65% | 80 | 58% | 69% |
| above 65% | 13 | 68% | 77% |
If the probabilities were perfectly calibrated the last two columns would match. They are within six points for 35% to 45% and 45% to 55%. They are further apart for below 35%: 233 matches, home side won 36% (model average 28%); 55% to 65%: 80 matches, home side won 69% (model average 58%); above 65%: 13 matches, home side won 77% (model average 68%). In those groups home sides did better than the model expected, which means the model was too cautious about home advantage on the older seasons it was tuned on. The settings used for the projections on this page are refitted on every season, with a home advantage of 50 points instead of 35.
Swiss clubs in Europe: the next matches
Conference League, Thu 5 Nov 17:45: Thun v Hearts. Home win 37%, draw 25%, away win 39%.
Conference League, Thu 5 Nov 20:00: Lugano v Kauno Žalgiris. Home win 75%, draw 20%, away win 5%.
Conference League, Thu 26 Nov 17:45: Ajax v Thun. Home win 77%, draw 19%, away win 4%.
These match probabilities come from a separate model for the European competitions, described on the Beat the robot page.
The model against the betting market
A rating model built from results alone can be tested against a harder opponent: the closing odds that bookmakers offered on the same matches. Turning the average closing odds into probabilities, after taking out the bookmaker's margin, gives a second opinion on every match. Over the 752 Swiss Super League matches from 2023/2024 to 2026/2027 that carry odds, both are scored in the same way as the model on this page: the lower the log-loss, the better the probabilities.
| Source of the probabilities | Log-loss | Right pick |
|---|---|---|
| Closing odds, margin removed | 1.018 | 50.1% |
| This model | 1.037 | 47.7% |
| Always the overall home, draw and away shares | 1.067 | – |
The market is the better forecaster. Its log-loss is 1.018 against 1.037 for the model, and it picks the right result in 50.1% of matches against 47.7%. That is the usual finding, because closing odds gather information the ratings do not see: injuries, line-ups, travel and the money of people who know more than a results table does. The model still beats the plain share of home wins, draws and away wins (1.067), so it says something, but it does not say as much as the market.
The largest disagreements between the two this season are listed below. A difference does not show which side was right; it shows where a results-only model and the market saw the match differently.
| Match | Result | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thun v Young Boys | 0-6 | away win 30% | 51% |
| Young Boys v Vaduz | 4-2 | home win 58% | 73% |
| Young Boys v Basel | 3-3 | home win 49% | 63% |
| Lugano v Servette | 1-0 | home win 51% | 38% |
| Grasshoppers v Young Boys | 0-2 | away win 53% | 66% |
These odds are used only as a measure of how good a forecast is. They are historic closing prices, not current offers, and no operator is named. A probability from a model or a market is not a reason to place a bet, and betting carries a real chance of loss. 18+.
How the Swiss league predictions are checked
The model is a rating system. Each club starts at a rating and gains or loses points after each match depending on the result, the strength of the opponent and the margin, with a home advantage of 50 points. The ratings come from 2,739 matches over 15 seasons, and between seasons they move partly back towards the average. The settings were first chosen on the seasons 2017/2018 to 2022/2023, to be able to check them on later matches, and the projections use the same kind of settings refitted on every season.
The check is on matches the settings were not chosen on: 752 matches from 2023/2024 to 2026/2027. For each match the model gave a probability for a home win, a draw and an away win before the match was used to update the ratings. The score, the logarithmic loss, was 1.0367 against 1.0671 for a baseline that always uses the long-run share of home wins, draws and away wins (42% / 27% / 32%). That is 2.8% better, and the club with the highest probability won 48% of the time. In football a modest edge like this is typical, because a single match has a large random part.
The model has limits that show in the numbers. It uses results only, so it does not see injuries, transfers, managers or fixture congestion. The summer break pulls every rating towards the mean, which makes the early season less certain. The projection can be wrong, and the figures here should not be taken as advice to gamble.
How to read the Swiss Super League predictions
The Swiss Super League predictions on this page give every club a chance of each final position, worked out by simulating the regular season many times. A Switzerland league prediction of this kind is a probability and not a forecast of one result: a club with a 40% chance finishes there in four of ten simulated seasons.
The Swiss Super League games still to be played are the ones the simulation draws at random, using the rating of the two clubs, and the Swiss Super League predictions change as soon as a new result is added. Any Switzerland league prediction should be read together with the checks further down the page.
The World Cup 2022 predictions in Qatar
Predictions for the FIFA World Cup 2022 in Qatar were published on this website while the tournament was played, from 27 October to 30 December 2022. They gave each team’s chance of winning the World Cup, the likelihood of each tournament outcome and the odds of the next matches.
The World Cup model was a random forest built on the FIFA world ranking, the World Football Elo rating and the average points from the last five World Cup or qualifying matches. It was developed and tested on more than 3,500 World Cup and qualifying matches since 2000 and reached an accuracy of about 62 percent for the result of a match, with the final probabilities taken from 1,000 simulations. The tournament is over and those predictions are no longer updated. The Swiss Super League predictions on this page use a different rating model.
Questions about the Swiss Super League predictions
Who is favourite to finish first in the Swiss Super League regular season?
Lugano, with a 81% chance of finishing first after round 33 in the simulation, ahead of Young Boys on 16%.
How are the Swiss league predictions made?
Each club has a rating that rises and falls with its results, adjusted for who it played, the margin and whether the match was at home. The ratings turn into win, draw and loss probabilities for each match still to be played, and the rest of the regular season is then simulated 20,000 times.
What does the top-six chance mean?
It is the share of simulated seasons in which the club finishes in the top six after round 33, which places it in the championship group of the split.
How many Swiss Super League games are still to be played before the split?
132 matches remain before the split, which is 22 matches for each of the 12 clubs.
Are these predictions reliable?
They are better than a guess based on the long-run share of home wins, draws and away wins, but not by a lot: on 752 matches from 2023/2024 to 2026/2027 the model's score was 2.8% better than that baseline. A single match remains very uncertain. The projections are more useful for seasons than for single matches.
Why does a club with fewer points rank higher in the projection?
The projection looks at the matches ahead as well as the points already won. A club with a lower rating can still be projected to collect fewer points than a club with a higher rating even if it is currently ahead.
Is this a betting tip?
No. The figures describe a model of the league, not a recommendation to place a bet. Gambling can lead to losses, and the model is not accurate enough to rely on for staking money.
Does the model know about injuries or transfers?
No. It uses results only. A change that has not yet shown in results, such as a new manager or a key injury, is not in the numbers.
Which clubs are most likely to miss the championship group?
Vaduz (7%), Grasshoppers (1%), Lausanne (1%) have the lowest chance of finishing in the top six.
Where are the current standings?
The Swiss Super League table, results and club statistics are on the Swiss Super League page.
How often do the predictions change?
They change when new results are added. The latest result in the data is from 25 October 2026.
What is the rating of the best club?
Lugano have the highest rating, 1614, and Lausanne have the lowest, 1418. A gap of 100 points means the higher-rated side is expected to win roughly 64% of the points on offer.
How are home and away handled?
The home side is credited with an advantage of 50 rating points. For the matches still to be played, the home and away order is not known, so each pair's remaining matches are given a random home side in each simulation.
What happens after round 33?
The table is split into two groups of six and each club plays five more matches. These projections cover only the regular season up to the split.
Can the numbers be wrong?
Yes. A rating system built on results and a simulation of the remaining matches simplifies a league. The model has been checked against past seasons it was not tuned on, and it scores only modestly better than a naive baseline.